Multi-Stage Stochastic Model for a Multipurpose Water Reservoir With Target-Priority Operation

The capacity planning and operation problem of a multi-purpose water reservoir has been extensively studied in the literature. Optimization techniques, especially linear programming, have been used quite successfully. Although most models are robust enough as planning tools, they fall short of providing an operational policy for the shorter term. In this paper, we consider the operation of a multi-purpose water reservoir problem. To eliminate the shortfalls of the classical models, we develop a multistage stochastic programming model that generates a release policy adapted to the uncertainty in the problem for shorter time periods. The model is designed to be flexible enough to be used as a planning or an operational tool. Alternative solution approaches and future research directives are discussed. Key–Words: stochastic programming, decision rules, target-priority policy, multistage stochastic programming, linear programming, water resources, reservoir operation.